India is likely to begin its delayed decadal census next year, which has shifted the focus to the complex process of redrawing Lok Sabha constituencies. Known as the delimitation exercise, it’s expected to finish by 2028. This will be based on the census results and may bring up old issues about political representation. Specifically, there could be tensions between northern states with higher populations and southern states, which have lower birth rates and are generally more prosperous.
To carry out delimitation, the Government of India must first set up a delimitation commission. This involves passing a delimitation act in Parliament after the census is completed, explained former Chief Election Commissioner S.Y. Quraishi. The commission is led by a Supreme Court judge and includes the Chief Election Commissioner (or one of the election commissioners) along with state election commissioners from across India. As the commission moves between states, the local election commissioner will join the team to guide the process in each region.
India has conducted delimitation four times: in 1952, 1963, 1973, and 2002. However, in 1976, the process was paused until after the 2001 census to prevent states with successful family planning efforts from losing political representation. The 2002 delimitation, led by retired Supreme Court Justice Kuldip Singh, allowed only for adjusting constituency borders within states without changing the total number of seats or state boundaries.
However, the delimitation for four north-eastern states — Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, and Manipur — was delayed in 2008 due to security concerns. This commission also addressed the problem of uneven voter distribution, where some constituencies had millions of voters while others had only a few hundred thousand. For example, in 2004, Outer Delhi had 3.3 million voters, while Chandni Chowk had about 330,000.
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Some believe that increasing the number of seats for high-population states could lead to protests, particularly from southern states like Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. Southern leaders worry that their states may lose representation because of their effective population control efforts. Analysts predict that by 2026, Uttar Pradesh’s seats could increase from 80 to 143, while Kerala’s might stay at 20. The total Lok Sabha seats could rise to 848. Delimitation may also affect how seats are reserved for scheduled castes and tribes.