Tensions between India and Pakistan have reached a peak following a deadly terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, last month, in which 26 people lost their lives. In response, India carried out “Operation Sindoor” targeting terrorist camps within Pakistani territory. Following this, Pakistan threatened a retaliatory strike, raising fears of a potential war between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.
India stated that Operation Sindoor was a direct response to the massacre of tourists in Pahalgam in April. However, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif labelled India’s operation as an “act of war” and vowed a strong retaliation. Both India and Pakistan have accumulated a significant number of nuclear weapons over the years, meant more for deterrence than actual use. Despite that, many Pakistani political and military figures have openly threatened the use of nuclear weapons amid rising tensions.
Nuclear Policies of Both Nations
India follows a “No First Use” nuclear policy, meaning it will only use nuclear weapons in retaliation to a nuclear attack on Indian territory or forces. Pakistan, on the other hand, maintains a policy of using tactical nuclear weapons to counter threats from its larger, wealthier rival. A nuclear conflict between the two could be catastrophic not just for South Asia, but for the entire world. If Pakistan initiates such an attack, it could engulf half the globe in its aftermath.
Nuclear Arsenal of Both Nations
According to the U.S.-based Arms Control Association (2024 data), India has approximately 172 nuclear warheads, while Pakistan has around 170. Some analysts suggest Pakistan may have up to 200. It is believed that Pakistan maintains its nuclear stockpile mainly as a deterrent against Indian aggression.
Potential Consequences of Nuclear War
Assuming both countries possess about 250 nuclear weapons in total, researchers warn of devastating outcomes. Depending on the weapons’ yield, between 50 to 125 million people could die instantly. Major cities in both countries would be completely destroyed and become uninhabitable. Infrastructure would collapse, crippling healthcare, transportation, energy, and financial systems.
But the destruction wouldn’t end there. The smoke and firestorms would severely affect global climate. This wouldn’t just impact South Asia — it could trigger global famine, potentially affecting billions.
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How Nuclear Weapons Work
In the event of a nuclear strike between India and Pakistan, the detonation would produce a blinding flash and a massive fireball. Everything within several kilometres would be incinerated. The extreme heat and radiation would cause people to burn from within, even dissolving bones in some cases. The fireball would suck in air rapidly, causing suffocation and death.
Impact on the Ozone Layer
Carbon particles from the explosions would darken the skies, blocking sunlight and leading to acid rain that could kill millions. These black clouds might linger for years. A nuclear war could destroy up to 70% of the ozone layer, exposing the planet to harmful ultraviolet rays that would severely damage human and plant life. Recovering from such devastation could take decades, and rebuilding economic and social structures would be extremely difficult.
Existing Agreements Between India and Pakistan
Despite their history of hostility, India and Pakistan signed the Non-Nuclear Aggression Agreement on December 31, 1988, which took effect on January 27, 1991. This agreement prohibits attacks on each other’s nuclear facilities. Since 1992, both countries have annually exchanged lists of nuclear installations every January. However, neither country is a signatory to the global Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which aims to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and technology.
Nine Nuclear-Armed Countries
According to the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), only nine countries possess nuclear weapons, with a total of about 12,331 warheads as of early 2025:
- United States
- Russia
- United Kingdom
- France
- China
- North Korea
- India
- Pakistan
- Israel
FAS reports that the U.S. and Russia hold about 88% of the world’s nuclear weapons and 84% of those ready for deployment. While the U.S. is reducing its arsenal, countries like China, India, North Korea, Pakistan, and the U.K. — and possibly Russia — are believed to be expanding theirs.